Solar Cycle 24 Peak Update

[Savoirfaire]

Further news on the timeframe for the Poles Shift on the sun.



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73, Frank 10 X-Ray 47 (SSB)

[MDYoungblood]

I was just reading about that on the NASA website yesterday, interesting stuff.

3's

Greg

[721HACKSAW]

Yes, very interesting... It seems in my location the daily DX has dropped off significantly from its peak of about 8-10 months ago, when I was talking to Europe and other locations daily.

[MDYoungblood]

I have been through several Solar Cycles and as the skip declines so does the amount of CB'ers. It will pop back up again and as it dies off we will be left talking to our neighbors for a couple years. So the guys out there with the big antennas and amps should be getting ready for some ground wave activity.

3's

Greg

[Savoirfaire]

We should still have some fair dx starting in middle to late September on 10 but this cycle may drop faster because Solar Flux Index and Sunspots are way below normal 300 SFI and sunspots 050 or above.


73, Frank 10 X-Ray 47 (SSB)

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Wednesday, 07 August 2013, 17:42 PM

Cannot edit in Miscellaneous Radio.

I was primarily speaking of 10 and 12 meters.

When the sunspots numbers and SFI drops the lower bands get better.

Of course, flares cannot sometimes effect or other events.

73, Frank 10 X-Ray 47 (SSB)

[Big blue]

Why does the magnetic pole changes on the Sun affect or ability to DX on earth?

[Ohio_359]

Because the magnetic field weakens before it flips. I think I read somewhere that the earths magnetic field is weakening and could mark a potential pole shift in the near future. "Near" being relative.

[Buzzweiser]

I read an article on the earths magnetic field shifting a few years ago. They had just made the discovery I believe in the 90's. Can't remember where I found it or I'd post it. Every so many thousands of years ours does the same thing. Some scientists think it could happen relatively soon. Some were even thinking it may phase itself at the same time the sun does it's thing but it was only speculation. Of course that could be this solar cycle, or the next or the one after that. No one really knows. They do know that magnetic north has been "moving around" more than it normally does over the past 20 or so years and some think it's a sign that ours is also about to change. What will happen when it does. Not much, or so they say. Some re-alignments in our GPS and other satellites will be needed but that is all. Same types of issues when Sun does it's thing.
This solar cycle has been much quieter than some in the past. So far it's even fooled many of the experts who thought it was going to be an active one. Many still believe it's going to have a second peak much like 01 and 02 and get really busy in late 2013 or early 2014. We'll have to wait and see on that. Further out predictions think that the next few cycles could be even lower than this one. Similar to the Dalton minimum years. If that's the case so much for sunspot DX. Yes a good sunspot cycle gives us great DX at times but we also get DX from other sources although they aren't as prolific. Even at solar minimum there will be a sunspot pop up from time to time and give us a little taste. Just going to have to be patient. If you can't just crank up the watts and talk ground wave.

[Savoirfaire]

The pole shift almost always occurs at or very near the middle of the cycle (approx every 5.5 years).

However, cycle 24 has been different because we spent a few years with no sunspots.

This happen about every 40 to 45 years on average.

When you hit the peak typically the Solar Flux Index and Sunspots number is much higher than it has been.

There typically are more (larger) flares which can take out power grids..

Therefore, you will see more aurora skip typically 6 meters (50 to 54 MHZ), 2 meters, 220 centimeters and up.

The lower bands 10 meters and down are effected with not as much activity temporarily or for quite awhile as the Maximum Uusable Frequency (MUF) becomes lower and DX is heavily effected.

Thus, there is more cosmic radiation too which is especially dangerous for astronauts.

They are saying it creates ripples through the solar system and beyond Pluto, but as mentioned the research on this is only been available for a short time.

When we go past the pole shift the Solar numbers will start decreasing most likely and DX will be effected with less DX.

However, when the SFI and Sunspots get lower the lower bands (40 meters, 80 meters, and 160 meters) DX better especially at the bottom of the cycle...


73, Frank 10 X-Ray 47 (SSB)

[Big blue]

Very interesting reasoning - the changes must be Bush's fault.

[Grinder74]

Their is a bush behind every fault...